Sport is inseparable from economics and finance. One of the world's largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, tried to predict the likely results of the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
To do this, he conducted a study that used 200 statistical models, analyzed data for all players and the latest results of team matches, and conducted 1 million simulations of the tournament, - Vedomosti writes.
Goldman Sachs experts assessed the chances of leading teams for success. Most of all the chances of winning the national team of Brazil. Brazilians with a probability of 18.5% for the sixth time will win the title of world champions. In the final, the Brazilian team will meet with the German team, analysts say. But the chances of the German team to win, they estimate only 10.7%.
France has a higher chance of winning than Germany - 11.3%. However, it is likely that the French will not be lucky and they will face Brazil in the semifinals, the study showed. The fourth semi-finalist investment bank called Portugal, but its chances for victory are not too high - 9.4%.
Goldman Sachs experts assessed the chances of six more teams: Belgium (8.2%), England (7.8%), Argentina (6.5%), Spain (5.7%), Colombia (3.7%) and Uruguay (3.2%).
According to analysts, the hostess of the tournament, the Russian national team, most likely will not even leave the group. In the first stage of the tournament, Russian players will play against the teams of Saudi Arabia, Uruguay and Egypt. Russia will not win a single victory, after a double draw (with Saudi Arabia and Egypt) and losing to Uruguay.
The chances of Russia's exit from the group of analysts were estimated at only 33.5%. Slightly higher chances for Egypt and Saudi Arabia - 34.4% and 36.5% respectively. The favorite group is Uruguay, which with a probability of 74.4% will go into the playoffs. His chances of winning the tournament are estimated at 3.2%, whereas Russia's chances are only 0.7%.
Analysts note that this data partially corresponds to the location of the teams in the FIFA rating. Last week, Uruguay rose in it to the 14th place, Egypt - to the 45th, Saudi Arabia took 67th place, and Russia dropped to a record low 70th place.
"Russian football may suffer from the same shortcomings as the economy: the Dutch disease, the excessive role of the state, limited external integration and lack of competition," Goldman Sachs said in a report. These factors are likely to impede the progress of the Russian team in recent years and contribute to the fall of Russia in the FIFA rating.
This is Goldman Sachs' sixth forecast for the outcome of the World Cup. For the previous five times, the bank managed to guess the winner only once - in 1998, and even when experts did not use the quantitative model now applied and named several contenders for the championship.
Earlier, another investment bank, UBS, also published a study on the chances of football teams to win at the World Cup. The favorites are Germany, Brazil and Spain. According to the research, with probability of 60% one of these teams will win. Above all, the researchers assessed Germany's chances of winning (24%), the probability that Brazil will win is 19.8%, Spain - 16.1%.
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